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Some say it's inevitable, while others claim the so-called quantum reckoning may never happen. As quantum computing moves from theory to laboratory reality, the crypto world finds itself facing a strange paradox: the more you learn about quantum risk, the more you realize how little is settled.
鈥淨-Day鈥 is a nickname for the hypothetical moment when a quantum computer becomes powerful enough to break the cryptography behind and other blockchains. Depending on who you ask, it鈥檚 either imminent, years away, or something that may never happen.
This article kicks off a short series Newton designed for crypto explorers who want to know what is going on. Some of us lived through Y2K, a classic case of more buildup than breakdown, so we approach quantum risk with perspective and focus on what matters.
Classical computers
Use 0s and 1s discretely
Keep crypto safe today
Found in laptops and phones
Quantum computers
Use 0 and 1 at the same time
Could break crypto in the future
Still in research labs
To understand the difference, imagine one calculator solving a problem step-by-step, versus thousands working in parallel to try every solution at once. The linear, step-by-step path would take much more time than the near instant, all at once solution.
While it might sound far removed from day-to-day crypto investing, it鈥檚 starting to show up in conversations about blockchain. One term you might come across is 鈥淨-Day鈥, a nickname for the moment when a quantum computer could potentially break today鈥檚 most secure and unbreakable encryption methods.
Blockchains like Bitcoin use cryptography to shield assets and verify transactions. Right now, that setup is super secure against classical computers. Quantum computers work differently, though. Once powerful enough they might run an algorithm to crack those protections and access private keys for some wallets. If Q-Day ever happens, certain wallets will need new ways to secure their keys.
Wallets with exposed public keys are most vulnerable to potential quantum computing attacks. This occurs when a transaction reveals the public key on the blockchain. Early Bitcoin wallets, including some linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, often used the pay-to-public-key (P2PK) format and would be most at risk from this type of attack. Reused addresses and certain exchange wallets are also susceptible, as their public keys are exposed multiple times. A quantum computer, if advanced enough, could derive private keys from these public keys using complex algorithms and computational processes.
When it came to wallets, Satoshi was not into renewable practices; he advised against address reuse. It may not be bulletproof in every future scenario, but many in the computer science community still consider this suggestion to be one of the best ways individuals currently have to quantum-proof crypto assets.
At this point in time, there鈥檚 no quantum computer that threatens Bitcoin鈥檚 security. Experts agree that we鈥檙e still many breakthroughs away from such a threat becoming a probable outcome, but have differing timelines. While some estimates suggest we have 3 to 5 years, others say that the physical limits of quantum systems may keep this kind of attack out of reach for a very long time, if it鈥檚 ever possible at all.
The anonymous figure behind Bitcoin may have vanished after its discovery, but peers are still building and shipping code. Technical developers have already been working on post-quantum cryptography and exploring how wallets could be upgraded or migrated for years to come.聽
It鈥檚 important to have critical dialogue early on, because in a decentralized environment, change depends on participant consensus. Many believe the real Q-day challenge may not be a technical one, but instead how well a decentralized group of humans can coordinate.
Over the next few weeks, we鈥檒l be sharing brief and easy-to-read pieces that explore:
This Newton Quantum series will walk through the key ideas so you can follow along without needing a technical background. Pressed for time and just want the highlights? For the essentials, see the FAQ sections below each blog.
Curious how quantum risk connects to other parts of the digital economy?
Explore our article on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which looks at how privacy, cryptography, and trust could shape the future of money.
